MMI is in the greed zone. It suggests that investors are acting greedy in the market, but the action to be taken depends on the MMI trajectory.
Since last week: Sentiment moved from Greed (63.69) to Greed (68.27).
Stock Spotlight Of The Day
NTPC Limited
Market Cap
3,89,951 Cr
Current Price
₹402
Stock P/E
16.1
Dividend Yield
2.08%
ROCE
10.8%
ROE
13.1%
Shareholding Changes (Impact Factors)
FIIs
QoQ
0.3%
YoY
-1.25%
Stable foreign holding
DIIs
QoQ
-0.06%
YoY
1.91%
Stable domestic holding
Promoters
QoQ
0%
YoY
0%
No change in promoter holding
Quarterly Summary (Absolute)
Sales
QoQ
Slight growth
2.37%
YoY
Slight growth
1.72%
Expenses
QoQ
Flat trend
-2.17%
YoY
Flat trend
-1.43%
Operating Profit
QoQ
Healthy pickup
13.69%
YoY
Mild gains
9.21%
Net Profit
QoQ
Mild gains
7.12%
YoY
Mild gains
8.26%
Profit & Loss (Compounded)
Sales Growth
10 Years
9%
5 Years
11%
3 Years
12%
TTM
1%
Profit Growth
10 Years
9%
5 Years
17%
3 Years
11%
TTM
10%
Stock Price CAGR
10 Years
13%
5 Years
29%
3 Years
31%
1 Year
20%
Return on Equity
10 Years
12%
5 Years
13%
3 Years
13%
Last Year
13%
Fundamentals Corner
The company’s growth momentum is slowing as TTM sales growth stalled at 1%, yet a remarkably consistent 13% ROE and disciplined cost-cutting have successfully defended double-digit profit growth.
Recent quarterly performance shows a pivot toward margin expansion—with operating profits jumping 13.6% QoQ despite tepid revenue—confirming that profitability is currently driven by efficiency rather than market expansion.
While the 16.1 P/E remains grounded, there is a visible disconnect between the aggressive 31% three-year stock price CAGR and the underlying mid-teen earnings growth, making a top-line recovery essential to justify further valuation re-rating.
News TidBits
NTPC is positioned as a primary beneficiary of India’s historic power sector capex surge, balancing traditional thermal scale with an aggressive 40% non-fossil capacity target by 2030.
The stock is supported by Citi Research with a target price of ₹485, driven by superior operational efficiency and its critical role in solving grid stability during non-solar hours.
As the data center economy and electrification efforts accelerate 24/7 power demand, NTPC’s integrated generation model provides a reliable moat against intermittent renewable supply.
While broader market volatility persists, NTPC benefits from FII sector rotation into capital goods and power, which are increasingly decoupled from global tech-cycle risks.
Key risks include DISCOM financial stress and potential delays in state-led privatization, which could impact the timing of long-term infrastructure project financing.
Stacks on Stacks: Tip Time 🤑
Successful long-term investing requires the discipline to see a 9% market correction not as a loss of wealth, but as a temporary discount on the future earnings of India's strongest enterprises.
Metals Market
Commodity
Price
Day
Monthly
YoY
Gold
USD/t.oz
4715.85
0.63%
-0.99%
41.86%
Silver
USD/t.oz
80.324
2.5%
6.65%
145.54%
Copper
USD/Lbs
6.249
1.98%
8.72%
35.65%
Steel
CNY/T
3244
-0.22%
5.63%
6.4%
Lithium
CNY/T
194000
1.84%
24.56%
197.32%
Iron Ore CNY
CNY/T
814.5
-0.31%
8.6%
16.86%
Platinum
USD/t.oz
2059.3
-0.15%
-2.5%
106.96%
Cobalt Hydroxide
USD/MT
56473.55
0.06%
-0.19%
98.9%
HRC Steel
USD/T
1130
-0.09%
4.15%
26.97%
Iron Ore
USD/T
110.93
-0.02%
4.39%
12.56%
Silicon
CNY/T
8870
-0.78%
7.39%
6.8%
Scrap Steel
USD/T
421
0.12%
0.36%
24.19%
Titanium
CNY/KG
48
0%
2.13%
-4.95%
Precious metals like gold and silver are seeing strong safe-haven demand due to US-Iran geopolitical tensions, with silver surging over 6% weekly as investors hedge against systemic risk.
Industrial metals like copper and lithium have gained significantly—8.7% and 24.5% monthly respectively—driven by global energy transition themes and the ongoing EV battery infrastructure buildout.
Domestic demand remains healthy for cement and construction, providing a buffer for metal-linked sectors even as global steel and iron ore prices face pressure from China's fluctuating manufacturing cycles.
Nifty50 and Small Cap indices have corrected 8-9% as the US-Israel-Iran conflict threatens crude oil supply lines via the Strait of Hormuz.
India's 82% oil import dependency creates a stagflation risk if prices exceed $120/barrel, potentially forcing the RBI to delay anticipated rate cuts.
FIIs have turned into heavy net sellers, withdrawing ₹14,231 crore this month as they flee to safe-haven USD, pressuring the Rupee toward 94.28.
Retail investors are advised to monitor the 23,800 Nifty support level, as a breakdown could signal extended selling and a shift toward defensive FMCG stocks.
Valuation Divergence Erases ₹1 Lakh Crore in Top-10 Firms
Heavyweights like SBI, TCS, and Bharti Airtel have seen massive market cap erosion despite marginal weekly gains in the Nifty index.
High-growth, non-cyclical banks like HDFC and ICICI are outperforming PSU peers as investors prioritize NIM resilience and asset quality over cyclical growth.
The internal market churn indicates a shift from cyclical, capex-heavy businesses toward defensive large caps with lower sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks.
Q4 FY26 earnings results will be the critical driver for further divergence, with 400+ companies being scrutinized for margin resilience against rising commodity costs.
Power Sector Capex Boom Addresses Reliability Crisis
India is entering a multi-year capex cycle in power transmission and storage, projected to grow at 5-6% annually to support the data center surge and cooling needs.
The 'non-solar hours' reliability gap is creating a new investment category for grid storage, battery tech, and efficient thermal generators like NTPC and Tata Power.
Citi Research targets for NTPC (₹485) and Tata Power (₹525) highlight institutional conviction in the structural energy transition theme.
DISCOM financial stress remains the primary bottleneck, potentially slowing down the transition from coal-heavy to renewable-centric infrastructure.
Cha-Ching Cheatsheet 💵
Avoid the 'heavyweight trap' where index stability masks erosion in large-cap blue chips; retail alpha often lies in sectors like power and defense that are currently decoupled from global tech cycles.
Global Markets
Country
Category
Current PE
Forward PE
Forward PEG
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Undervalued
15.8
13.2
0.8
🇫🇷 France
Undervalued
17.2
14.0
0.8
🇮🇩 Indonesia
Undervalued
13.8
10.1
0.4
🇦🇺 Australia
Fairly Valued
20.4
17.9
1.4
🇩🇪 Germany
Fairly Valued
17.6
15.0
1.0
🇮🇳 India
Fairly Valued
20.1
18.3
2.0
🇸🇬 Singapore
Fairly Valued
16.9
-
-
🇰🇷 South Korea
Fairly Valued
24.1
9.3
0.2
🇨🇳 China
Fairly Valued
18.8
15.0
0.7
🇯🇵 Japan
Fairly Valued
20.1
17.9
1.7
🇺🇸 United States
Fairly Valued
26.0
22.0
1.4
🇹🇭 Thailand
Overvalued
17.2
-
-
* Valuation category is calculated as a weighted average of PE ratio, CAPE, forward PE, historical PEG, and forward PEG. We are currently showing PE, Forward PE, and Forward PEG for reference.
Wall Street record highs boosted risk appetite → FII positioning shifted → Indian cyclicals gained as EM equities rode US tech/AI momentum.
Dollar steadied post-yield spike → Rupee held firm → IT exporters avoided drag, enabling selective large-cap stability amid FII outflows.
WTI crude drop to sub-$93 → Oil linkage eased → ONGC/Reliance sold off while downstream refiners captured refining margin windfall.
US-Iran talks progress raised global growth expectations → Capex proxies rallied → India's infra/industrials benefited from anticipated commodity demand uptick.
US 10-yr yield at 4.44% widened rate differentials → FII flows slowed → Rate-sensitive banks dipped initially before DII support stabilized.
Policy & Regulations
The market is pricing in the upcoming RBI monetary policy decision, with investors anticipating a cautious stance to manage liquidity and inflation risks stemming from Middle East tensions.
SEBI has approved six new IPO filings, including Zepto and Dhoot Transmission, reflecting a continued regulatory push to deepen the primary market for new-age and manufacturing firms.
New regulatory proposals for the ancillary services market are growing to support frequency regulation and load balancing, benefiting efficient generators like NTPC and Tata Power.
Crypto Buzz
Name
Price
Market Cap
24h Change
ATH Change
Bitcoin (BTC)
$80785
$1.62T
0.57%
-35.93%
Ethereum (ETH)
$2321.18
$280.08B
0.28%
-53.07%
Tether (USDT)
$0.999817
$189.66B
-0.00%
-24.44%
XRP (XRP)
$1.42
$87.82B
-0.18%
-61.08%
BNB (BNB)
$649.25
$87.48B
-0.14%
-52.61%
Bitcoin has crossed the $80,000 milestone, fueled by institutional interest and the breaking of key technical structures, even as geopolitical tensions remain a market overhang.
Institutional adoption is accelerating as evidenced by JPMorgan, Mastercard, and Ripple completing tokenized Treasury settlements using XRP, signaling a shift toward real-world utility.
CME Group’s planned Bitcoin volatility futures are expected to provide investors with more professional tools for managing risk in digital assets amid shifting Fed rate expectations.
Indian Macroeconomy
Currency
Exchange rate against USD
94.28
0.02
Previous: 94.26
As of May 26
Nominal GDP
Annual growth including inflation
7.8%
-0.4%
Previous: 8.2%
As of Dec 25
CPI Inflation
Consumer price increase
3.4%
0.19%
Previous: 3.21%
As of Mar 26
Repo Rate
RBI lending rate
5.25%
→
0%
Previous: 5.25%
As of Apr 26
Trade Balance
Exports minus imports
$-20.67B
$6.43B
Previous: $-27.1B
As of Mar 26
Current Account
Global trade, income & transfers
$-13172M
$928M
Previous: $-14100M
As of Dec 25
Mfg PMI
Manufacturing activity level
54.7 points
0.8 points
Previous: 53.9 points
As of Apr 26
Services PMI
Services activity level
58.8 points
1.3 points
Previous: 57.5 points
As of Apr 26
India's GDP growth has moderated to 7.8% while inflation ticked up to 3.4%, suggesting a narrowing window for the RBI to initiate rate cuts amidst global supply chain volatility.
Manufacturing and Services PMIs remain robust at 54.7 and 58.8 respectively, indicating that domestic demand and business activity are resilient despite external geopolitical shocks.
The Indian Rupee has reached 94.28 against the Dollar, putting pressure on import costs and potentially accelerating FII outflows as currency depreciation erodes dollar-denominated returns.
