MMI is in the extreme fear zone. Extreme fear (<30) suggests a good time to open fresh positions , as markets are likely to be oversold and might turn upwards.
Since last week: Sentiment moved from Ext. Fear (21.96) to Ext. Fear (26.21).
Stock Spotlight Of The Day
Vedanta Limited
Market Cap
2,68,898 Cr
Current Price
₹688
Stock P/E
24.5
Dividend Yield
6.33%
ROCE
25.3%
ROE
38.5%
Shareholding Changes (Impact Factors)
FIIs
QoQ
1.07%
YoY
0.13%
Positive foreign sentiment
DIIs
QoQ
-0.94%
YoY
-0.18%
Stable domestic holding
Promoters
QoQ
0%
YoY
0%
No change in promoter holding
Quarterly Summary (Absolute)
Sales
QoQ
Strong momentum
24.65%
YoY
Strong momentum
36.96%
Expenses
QoQ
Costs rising
19.31%
YoY
High escalation
36.95%
Operating Profit
QoQ
Strong profit
39.69%
YoY
Strong profit
36.96%
Net Profit
QoQ
Profits soared
124.4%
YoY
Profits soared
60.11%
Profit & Loss (Compounded)
Sales Growth
10 Years
8%
5 Years
13%
3 Years
5%
TTM
-4%
Profit Growth
10 Years
22%
5 Years
2%
3 Years
-10%
TTM
12%
Stock Price CAGR
10 Years
23%
5 Years
24%
3 Years
34%
1 Year
71%
Return on Equity
10 Years
15%
5 Years
24%
3 Years
23%
Last Year
38%
Fundamentals Corner
The company is exhibiting a shift toward high-efficiency capital management, with ROE nearly doubling to 38% despite a stagnating three-year sales trend and negative TTM revenue.
Growth momentum is currently uneven but showing a sharp short-term recovery, as a 60% YoY profit surge in the latest quarter justifies the aggressive 71% stock price rally.
Despite the long-term top-line slowdown, the combination of a moderate 24.5 P/E and a significant 6.33% dividend yield suggests the market is pricing the stock as a high-yield cash cow rather than a growth play.
News TidBits
Vedanta is witnessing a significant divergence across its core business segments, with record-breaking production in Aluminium and Zinc being overshadowed by a 16% decline in Oil and Gas output.
This production mix shift reflects the company's evolving operational focus as it navigates commodity price volatility and internal debt management strategies.
While industrial metal volumes are reaching record highs, the sharp contraction in the high-margin energy vertical poses a risk to overall EBITDA stability in the near term.
Investors should monitor how the company balances its capital expenditure between legacy energy assets and its higher-growth mining divisions.
The divergence highlights the importance of a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach for diversified conglomerates in a softening global manufacturing cycle.
Stacks on Stacks: Tip Time 🤑
True market discipline is recognizing when a widening gap between a bank's 25% credit growth and its falling share price is a liquidity event driven by FII outflows rather than a fundamental business failure.
Metals Market
Commodity
Price
Day
Monthly
YoY
Gold
USD/t.oz
4677.28
-2.26%
-8.09%
50.26%
Silver
USD/t.oz
72.99
-0.04%
-12.59%
146.85%
Copper
USD/Lbs
5.563
-1.08%
-3.65%
15.82%
Steel
CNY/T
3103
-0.06%
0.62%
0.16%
Lithium
CNY/T
158500
-0.63%
2.92%
118.32%
Iron Ore CNY
CNY/T
799.5
-0.68%
6.32%
10.5%
Platinum
USD/t.oz
1983.2
-0.33%
-4.45%
111.95%
HRC Steel
USD/T
1075
0.47%
5.08%
17.74%
Iron Ore
USD/T
107.45
0%
7.39%
4.69%
Silicon
CNY/T
8285
-0.18%
-2.36%
-13.97%
Scrap Steel
USD/T
418.5
1.09%
11.45%
12.5%
Titanium
CNY/KG
47
0%
3.3%
-3.09%
Gold continues to act as a primary geopolitical hedge, gaining 2.2% in a single week despite a 2.26% daily dip, while Silver is undergoing a massive 47% technical correction from its peaks as aggressive bullion buying cools.
Industrial metals like Copper and Lithium are facing downward pressure, dropping 1.08% and 0.63% respectively, as cooling global manufacturing PMIs and EV transition dynamics temper short-term demand expectations.
Steel and Iron Ore prices remain largely range-bound with a slight bearish bias, reflecting the broader slowdown in global infrastructure cycles and a 0.68% decline in Chinese Iron Ore futures.
The easing of West Asia tensions has dropped Brent crude to approximately $101 per barrel, providing a critical relief valve for energy-dependent Indian sectors such as Paints and FMCG.
Top News Developments
Geopolitical De-escalation Relief for Oil-Dependent Sectors
A drop in Brent crude to ~$101/barrel following eased West Asia tensions spurred a 1.6% Nifty recovery on April 2nd.
Lower energy costs directly improve margins for FMCG, Paints, and QSR heavyweights like Asian Paints and Hindustan Unilever.
The cooling of oil-supply risks aligns with a global risk-on shift as US bond yields stabilize.
Investors should watch for sustained recovery in the Auto sector, which emerged as a top performer following strong March sales.
DIIs infused nearly ₹29,250 crore in early April, effectively neutralizing the ₹29,400 crore withdrawn by FIIs.
Heavyweight banking stocks like HDFC Bank and IDFC First Bank are seeing a divergence where robust credit growth is masked by systematic FII selling.
Market volatility remains contained (VIX ~12.90) due to this domestic liquidity backstop, providing a cushion for retail investors.
Bottom-fishing is beginning to surface in undervalued cyclicals and financials despite the broader 11% market correction.
Sectoral Divergence: Defense and Luxury Shine Amid IT Muted Outlook
India's defense sector remains a high-conviction play following strategic manufacturing deals with Germany, France, and Israel.
The IT sector braces for a muted Q4 with Tier-1 growth potentially dipping to -1.1%, though post-correction valuations are turning attractive.
A shift toward domestic luxury travel is benefiting niche markets like premium watches and swimwear, signaling resilient high-end consumption.
Small-cap internal strength is rewarding bottom-up stock picking, with select names delivering gains up to 72% despite index fatigue.
IPO Watchlist
Upcoming IPOs
Propshare Celestia is scheduled to open for subscription from April 10 to April 16 with a total issue size of ₹244.65 crore.
Punjab Carbonic has filed for a public issue to capitalize on emerging growth themes within the ethanol and industrial CO2 recovery sectors.
Propshare Celestia
244.65
Date:10 Apr - 16 Apr
List:24 Apr
Subscription: -
GMP: 0.00%
Cha-Ching Cheatsheet 💵
Internal funding shifts by promoters often act as a silent warning that traditional equity markets have become too expensive, signaling a 'wait-and-watch' period for retail capital allocation.
Global Markets
Country
Category
Current PE
Forward PE
Forward PEG
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Fairly Valued
16.6
14.9
1.5
🇩🇪 Germany
Fairly Valued
18.5
15.3
0.9
🇫🇷 France
Fairly Valued
20.9
17.9
1.2
🇮🇩 Indonesia
Fairly Valued
17.2
11.7
0.4
🇹🇭 Thailand
Fairly Valued
16.5
-
-
🇦🇺 Australia
Fairly Valued
21.8
19.8
2.1
🇸🇬 Singapore
Fairly Valued
17.1
-
-
🇨🇳 China
Fairly Valued
19.0
15.7
0.9
🇮🇳 India
Fairly Valued
21.1
20.1
4.3
🇰🇷 South Korea
Fairly Valued
22.3
13.6
0.4
🇺🇸 United States
Fairly Valued
24.8
21.4
1.6
🇯🇵 Japan
Overvalued
20.8
19.6
3.5
* Valuation category is calculated as a weighted average of PE ratio, CAPE, forward PE, historical PEG, and forward PEG. We are currently showing PE, Forward PE, and Forward PEG for reference.
Middle East de-escalation boosted risk appetite → FIIs reversed outflows → equities gained as EM positioning improved.
Rupee rebounded from record lows → dollar eased → import costs fell → supported consumer and manufacturing sectors.
Brent crude fell to $101/barrel → oil linkage eased → refiners and airlines gained from lower input pressures.
US bond yield drop raised growth expectations → infrastructure proxies → capex cycle accelerated amid positive cues.
Fed signals narrowed rate differentials → EM borrowing eased → financials attracted flows as yield spreads widened.
Emerging Opportunities
Automotives + strong March sales + buy leaders as crude drop aids margins—market overlooks cycle upturn.
Midcap industrials + post-correction valuations + position for infra spend—contrarian to FII exit narrative.
Promoters are increasingly shifting toward internal funding and alternative capital-raising methods as volatile equity markets and FPI outflows make traditional public offerings more expensive.
Regulatory focus remains anchored on long-term initiatives such as green finance and market discipline, though recent 'war jitters' have forced a more defensive capital allocation strategy among major domestic players.
The RBI maintains its current interest rate at 5.25%, prioritizing the stabilization of the liability franchise in the banking sector amid rising credit demand and global rate uncertainty.
Crypto Buzz
Name
Price
Market Cap
24h Change
ATH Change
Bitcoin (BTC)
$67116
$1.34T
0.26%
-46.77%
Ethereum (ETH)
$2052.67
$247.73B
-0.41%
-58.50%
Tether (USDT)
$0.999853
$184.14B
-0.01%
-24.43%
XRP (XRP)
$1.32
$80.78B
-0.11%
-63.93%
BNB (BNB)
$589.65
$80.42B
0.42%
-56.96%
Bitcoin is trading near $67,116 with heavy 'whale' selling and negative accumulation offsetting institutional interest, keeping prices locked within a narrow range with critical support at $65,000.
The total cryptocurrency market cap has edged up to $2.39 trillion, though Ethereum and XRP have seen minor declines of 0.41% and 0.11% as the market searches for a clear directional catalyst.
Sentiments remain cautiously optimistic as institutional leaders like BlackRock issue bullish forecasts, even as analysts warn of potential 'nonsense' price scenarios amid structural headwinds.
Indian Macroeconomy
Currency
Exchange rate against USD
92.71
-0.26
Previous: 92.97
As of Apr 26
Nominal GDP
Annual growth including inflation
7.8%
-0.4%
Previous: 8.2%
As of Dec 25
CPI Inflation
Consumer price increase
3.21%
0.47%
Previous: 2.74%
As of Feb 26
Repo Rate
RBI lending rate
5.25%
→
0%
Previous: 5.25%
As of Mar 26
Trade Balance
Exports minus imports
$-27.1B
$7.58B
Previous: $-34.68B
As of Feb 26
Current Account
Global trade, income & transfers
$-13198M
$934M
Previous: $-14132M
As of Dec 25
Mfg PMI
Manufacturing activity level
53.8 points
-3.1 points
Previous: 56.9 points
As of Mar 26
Services PMI
Services activity level
57.2 points
-0.9 points
Previous: 58.1 points
As of Mar 26
India's GDP growth remains robust at 7.8%, although a slight deceleration from the previous 8.2% and cooling PMIs in both Manufacturing (53.8) and Services (57.2) suggest a moderation in near-term economic momentum.
Inflation has ticked up to 3.21% from 2.74%, creating a cautious environment for the RBI as it balances price stability against cooling high-frequency indicators and industrial output.
The recent end of a rare four-month losing streak for the Nifty 50 historically signals a potential long-term recovery phase, as similar capitulation periods have often preceded average one-year rallies of 40%.
The trade deficit narrowed to $27.1 billion in February, supported by a strengthening balance of trade and current account improvements that provide a buffer against global currency volatility.
