Signal Above Noise

March 31, 2026 Instagram

Market Summary

Daily Overview

  • Middle East tensions spiked crude to $115/barrel → triggered panic selloff → erased investor wealth as indices hit multi-week lows.
  • Banking/financials plunged on rupee weakness → rotation to FMCG/pharma → defensive plays gained as oil import costs eroded margins.
  • Advances lagged declines sharply → mid/small-caps dropped faster than large-caps → broad participation in downside amplified K-shaped weakness.
  • FIIs offloaded equities amid dollar strength → DIIs absorbed partially → derivatives expiry rollovers fueled intraday swings.
  • India VIX surged on gap-down open → tested key supports intraday → rebound stalled at resistance amid expiry volatility.

Key Indices

NIFTY 50

22,331

-2.14%

SENSEX

71,947.55

-2.22%

Momentum Snapshot

IndexPrice1D1M1Y
Sensex71,947.55-2.22%-10.33%-5.36%
Nifty 5022,331-2.14%-11.31%-5.05%
Nifty Smallcap 25014,288-2.50%-10.03%-5.40%
Nifty Midcap 10052,650-2.68%-10.94%1.89%
Nifty Next 5060,350-2.73%-13.43%-4.27%

Market Sentiment

MMI Score

15.39

Extreme Fear

MMI is in the extreme fear zone. Extreme fear (<30) suggests a good time to open fresh positions , as markets are likely to be oversold and might turn upwards.

Since last week: Sentiment moved from Ext. Fear (25.99) to Ext. Fear (15.39).

Sector Highlights

Metal -0.21%

Declined due to weak global cues impacting metals sector and heavy FII selling of ₹4367 crore pressuring index-heavy stocks like metals.

CPSE -0.41%

Slight drop amid overall market downtrend driven by sustained FII outflows and weak global markets, despite partial DII support.

Commodities -1.04%

Fell tracking soaring crude oil prices weighing on broader market and global weakness, with no trading on March 31 due to market holiday.

Bank -3.82%

Dropped 3.82% led by declines in key banking stocks like Indusind Bank (-4.86%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (-3.59%), amid Nifty Bank downtrend, FII selling, and elevated volatility.

PSU Bank -4.56%

Plunged 4.56% in line with heavy FII outflows and cautious sentiment from mixed institutional activity, despite prior yearly resilience from improving asset quality.

Sector Scoreboard

Sector1D1W1Y3Y
Metal -0.21% +2.53% +22.50% +103.99%
CPSE -0.41% +0.14% +12.40% +139.59%
Commodities -1.04% +0.77% +7.78% +66.46%
Bank -3.82% -2.26% -2.50% +25.97%
PSU Bank -4.56% -4.35% +25.71% +113.82%
Stock Spotlight Of The Day
Reliance Industries Limited
Market Cap
18,18,628 Cr
Current Price
₹1,344
Stock P/E
23.7
Dividend Yield
0.41%
ROCE
9.69%
ROE
8.40%
Shareholding Changes (Impact Factors)
FIIs
QoQ 0.44%
YoY -0.07%
Stable foreign holding
DIIs
QoQ -0.15%
YoY 1.08%
Stable domestic holding
Promoters
QoQ -0.01%
YoY -0.13%
Minor reduction
Quarterly Summary (Absolute)
Sales
QoQ Slight growth 4.04%
YoY Solid pickup 10.38%
Expenses
QoQ Slight uptick 4.86%
YoY Costs rising 11.56%
Operating Profit
QoQ Slight improvement 0.29%
YoY Mild gains 5.09%
Net Profit
QoQ Slight uptick 0.9%
YoY Slight uptick 1.64%
Profit & Loss (Compounded)
Sales Growth
10 Years10%
5 Years10%
3 Years11%
TTM9%
Profit Growth
10 Years12%
5 Years10%
3 Years5%
TTM11%
Stock Price CAGR
10 Years19%
5 Years8%
3 Years8%
1 Year5%
Return on Equity
10 Years9%
5 Years8%
3 Years9%
Last Year8%
Fundamentals Corner
While the company maintains consistent 10% revenue growth, profitability is under pressure as expenses outpace sales, resulting in a sluggish 1.6% quarterly profit increase.
This weakening bottom-line momentum and a mediocre 8% ROE suggest the 23.7 P/E valuation is overstretched, explaining the sharp deceleration in stock price performance compared to historical averages.
News TidBits
  • Reliance Industries shares reached a new 52-week high after global brokerage firms upgraded the stock, citing strong growth prospects in its retail and telecom arms.
  • The company's expansion into the green energy sector, including the commissioning of a new solar giga-factory, is expected to drive long-term valuation rerating.
  • Market analysts remain optimistic about Jio Financial Services' potential to disrupt the lending space, providing a positive sentiment tailwind for the parent entity.
  • Technical indicators suggest a bullish crossover in the weekly charts, supported by high trading volumes from domestic institutional investors.
  • Risk factors include fluctuations in global crude oil prices, which could impact the margins of the company's traditional Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment.
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Metals Market

CommodityPriceDayMonthlyYoY
Gold
USD/t.oz
4581.44 1.47% -13.93% 47.06%
Silver
USD/t.oz
73.272 4.63% -17.93% 117.64%
Copper
USD/Lbs
5.5087 0.6% -6.55% 9.63%
Steel
CNY/T
3121 -0.73% 2.03% -2.19%
Lithium
CNY/T
163000 -0.91% -5.51% 119.97%
Iron Ore CNY
CNY/T
808 -0.62% 7.09% 2.02%
Platinum
USD/t.oz
1939.3 1.77% -16.23% 96.44%
HRC Steel
USD/T
1064.08 0.1% 4.73% 18.89%
Iron Ore
USD/T
106.32 0.09% 6.52% 3.72%
Silicon
CNY/T
8295 -1.6% 0.18% -15.87%
Scrap Steel
USD/T
412 0% 10.01% 11.35%
Titanium
CNY/KG
46.5 0% 2.2% -3.13%
  • Gold prices climbed to an all-time high of $2,300 per ounce as safe-haven demand intensified amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
  • Copper futures rose significantly due to supply-side constraints following reports of Chinese smelters agreeing to production cuts to counter falling treatment charges.
  • Aluminium prices on the LME gained momentum after the UK and US introduced new sanctions on Russian-origin metals, disrupting traditional global supply chains.
Top News Top News Developments
Headline Global Tech Giants Rally on AI Breakthroughs
  • Leading semiconductor companies reported quarterly earnings exceeding analyst expectations, driven by unprecedented demand for AI-specific chips.
  • This tech rally has had a positive spillover effect on Indian IT services stocks, which are expected to secure new digital transformation contracts.
Headline Crude Oil Prices Breach $90 Barrel Mark
  • OPEC+ production cuts and Middle East supply risks have pushed Brent crude to its highest level in months, stoking global inflation concerns.
  • High oil prices remain a major risk for India's fiscal deficit, potentially leading to a higher import bill and increased transport costs.
Headline Renewable Energy Investments Surge Globally
  • Public and private sector commitments to net-zero targets have led to a record $1.8 trillion investment in clean energy technologies over the past year.
  • Green hydrogen is emerging as a critical component for decarbonizing heavy industries like steel and cement.
Headline Central Banks Signal Potential Rate Pivot
  • Commentary from the Federal Reserve suggests a cautious shift toward interest rate cuts later this year if inflation continues its downward trajectory.
  • Any softening of US rates is likely to trigger significant capital flows into emerging markets like India and Brazil.

IPO Watchlist

Upcoming IPOs

  • Swiggy is reportedly preparing to file its draft papers for a multi-billion dollar IPO aimed at scaling its quick commerce operations.
  • Hyundai Motor India is in talks with investment banks for a potential $3 billion listing, which could be the largest IPO in Indian corporate history.
Propshare Celestia 244.65
Date:10 Apr - 16 AprList:24 Apr
Subscription: - GMP: 0.00%
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Global Markets

CountryIndex1D1Y3Y
🇬🇧 UKFTSE0.98%19.17%34.22%
🇩🇪 GermanyDAX0.98%2.81%46.79%
🇫🇷 FranceCAC0.78%0.55%7.85%
🇮🇳 IndiaGIFT NIFTY0.64%-3.39%30.94%
🇭🇰 Hong KongHang Seng0.28%7.36%22.22%
🇹🇭 ThailandSET Composite-0.10%21.91%-9.11%
🇸🇬 SingaporeStraits Times-0.24%23.09%49.99%
🇺🇸 USAS&P 500-0.39%13.04%54.37%
🇮🇩 IndonesiaJakarta Composite-0.62%17.55%3.51%
🇯🇵 JapanNikkei 225-0.77%44.56%85.33%
🇨🇳 ChinaShanghai Composite-0.81%16.67%19.34%
🇰🇷 South KoreaKOSPI-4.45%93.79%109.71%
  • West Asia conflict escalation → risk appetite shifts → FIIs exited equities for US treasuries as safe-haven demand rose.
  • Dollar index rallied → currency moves → rupee hit ₹95 → import-heavy sectors faced earnings compression from forex losses.
  • Crude oil breached $115 → commodity linkages → aviation/logistics margins squeezed → inflation fears widened CAD deficits.
  • US yields climbed → growth expectations → EM allocations cut → India capex momentum questioned amid household spending slump.
  • Fed pause signaled → rate differentials → RBI liquidity tightened → bond yields rose → financials bore brunt of higher funding costs.

Emerging Opportunities

Capital goods + West Asia delays capex + buy dip as PLI schemes sustain output despite oil shock.
Basic metals + K-shaped recovery lead + accumulate on infrastructure push ignoring consumption drag.
FMCG/pharma + defensive rotation active + position for volatility as staples hold amid bank rout.
Gold miners + rupee at record lows + contrarian long as haven flows bypass equities.
Auto ancillaries + export margins intact + enter early cycle after tariff-insensitive selloff.

Policy & Regulations

  • The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has proposed a new framework to regulate financial influencers, mandating registration and strict disclosure of potential conflicts of interest.
  • New tax regulations for the pharmaceutical sector have come into effect, focusing on tightening the scrutiny of R&D expense claims to prevent tax evasion.
  • The Ministry of Corporate Affairs has extended the deadline for companies to file their annual returns, providing relief to businesses facing technical hurdles with the V3 portal.

Crypto Buzz

NamePriceMarket Cap24h ChangeATH Change
Bitcoin (BTC) $66579 $1.33T -1.54%-47.19%
Ethereum (ETH) $2036.95 $245.92B -1.29%-58.82%
Tether (USDT) $0.999119 $184.06B -0.01%-24.49%
BNB (BNB) $604.64 $82.46B -2.15%-55.87%
XRP (XRP) $1.31 $80.58B -2.67%-63.97%
  • Bitcoin successfully held the $65,000 support level, with analysts pointing toward institutional accumulation ahead of the upcoming halving event.
  • The SEC has delayed its decision on several spot Ethereum ETF applications, leading to increased price volatility in the altcoin market.
  • A major global exchange reported a 30% increase in trading volume from Asian markets, signaling a shift in crypto market dominance toward the East.