Signal Above Noise

March 02, 2026 Instagram

Market Summary

Daily Overview

  • Budget 2026 'Build India' capex pivot overshadowed FY25 gains because FIIs reduced outflows → benchmarks consolidated amid selective positioning.
  • Sectoral rotation hit IT from tariff fears because pharma gained resilience → defensive plays absorbed global shocks while cyclicals lagged.
  • Narrow breadth emerged with large-caps stable because small-caps corrected further → time correction undervalued earnings rebound potential.
  • FIIs turned net buyers post-budget because DIIs sustained support → derivatives showed reduced put-call ratios signaling lower fear.
  • VIX spiked on West Asia tensions because intraday gaps formed lower highs → key supports held averting breakdown to prior lows.

Key Indices

NIFTY 50

24,866

-1.24%

SENSEX

80,238.85

-1.29%

Momentum Snapshot

IndexPrice1D1M1Y
Sensex80,238.85-1.29%-4.18%9.79%
Nifty 5024,866-1.24%-0.89%12.39%
Nifty Next 5068,650-1.52%2.35%20.31%
Nifty Midcap 10058,181-1.58%0.89%21.42%
Nifty Smallcap 25015,580-1.89%0.47%12.54%

Market Sentiment

MMI Score

44.87

Fear

MMI is in the fear zone. It suggests that investors are fearful in the market, but the action to be taken depends on the MMI trajectory.

Since last week: Sentiment moved from Fear (42.55) to Fear (44.87).

Sector Highlights

Metal +0.24%

Metals stood out as a rare pocket of resilience amid broad-based risk-off sentiment. The sector's modest positive performance (+0.24%) likely reflects safe-haven demand and potential upside from geopolitical tensions driving commodity prices higher, contrasting with weakness in cyclical and rate-sensitive segments.

Pharma +0.02%

Pharma remained essentially flat (+0.02%) despite broader market weakness. The sector showed relative stability as investors rotated away from cyclicals, though it did not benefit significantly from typical defensive safe-haven flows, suggesting mixed sentiment around pharmaceutical valuations amid global uncertainty.

CPSE -0.17%

Central Public Sector Enterprises declined marginally (-0.17%) as part of the broad-based selloff. Energy sector weakness—which plummeted 20.58% due to rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia and crude oil price surges—weighed heavily on CPSE indices, as many state-owned enterprises operate in energy and commodities-exposed segments.

PSU Bank -1.84%

PSU Bank stocks fell 1.84% amid selling pressure on banking counters driven by concerns over rising bond yields and margin compression in a risk-off environment. Banking stocks, carrying significant weight in benchmark indices, faced broad selling as investors adopted a defensive stance following geopolitical escalation in West Asia.

Auto -2.20%

Auto sector declined 2.20% as cyclical and rate-sensitive stocks came under pressure amid global uncertainty. The sector faced additional headwinds from rising crude oil prices, which increase input costs for vehicle manufacturers and fuel-linked expenses, alongside weakened consumer demand sentiment triggered by geopolitical tensions and Middle East conflict escalation.

Sector Scoreboard

Sector1D1W1Y3Y
Metal +0.24% +2.09% +46.86% +130.36%
Pharma +0.02% +2.23% +13.62% +92.84%
CPSE -0.17% +0.91% +29.31% +144.75%
PSU Bank -1.84% +1.60% +68.83% +169.50%
Auto -2.20% +1.12% +31.98% +122.16%
Stock Spotlight Of The Day
Tejas Networks
Market Cap
8,613 Cr
Current Price
₹485
Stock P/E
Dividend Yield
0.52%
ROCE
15.5%
ROE
12.8%
Shareholding Changes (Impact Factors)
FIIs
QoQ -0.29%
YoY -2.09%
Stable foreign holding
DIIs
QoQ -0.03%
YoY 0.11%
Stable domestic holding
Promoters
QoQ -0.2%
YoY -0.55%
Minor reduction
Quarterly Summary (Absolute)
Sales
QoQ Solid pickup 17.18%
YoY Severe drop -88.38%
Expenses
QoQ Sharp cut -20.68%
YoY Sharp cut -80.58%
Operating Profit
QoQ Erosion -54.42%
YoY Erosion -136.02%
Net Profit
QoQ Collapsed -35.83%
YoY Collapsed -218.67%
Profit & Loss (Compounded)
Sales Growth
10 Years37%
5 Years87%
3 Years153%
TTM-68%
Profit Growth
10 Years39%
5 Years31%
3 Years109%
TTM-216%
Stock Price CAGR
10 YearsNone%
5 Years17%
3 Years-9%
1 Year-39%
Return on Equity
10 Years4%
5 Years4%
3 Years5%
Last Year13%
Fundamentals Corner
While the company boasts explosive multi-year historical growth, its fundamentals have suffered a catastrophic breakdown over the last year, with TTM sales collapsing by 68% and profits swinging into deep operational losses.
Despite a marginal sequential recovery in quarterly revenue, the massive 88% YoY sales drop and negative operating margins confirm that the previous growth momentum has been completely erased.
The stock’s 39% decline over the past year reflects this fundamental decay, cautioning investors that historical performance is currently disconnected from the harsh reality of its present cash-burning operations.
News TidBits
  • Tejas Networks bucked the bearish trend, surging 60% over four sessions following a major 5G equipment deal with NEC.
  • The deal signals strong demand for domestic telecom hardware and positions the company as a key beneficiary of 'Atmanirbhar' manufacturing.
  • Investors view the stock as a growth outlier, decoupling from sentiment headwinds affecting the broader IT sector.
  • The company's focus on AI-powered telecom infrastructure aligns with shifting institutional preferences toward high-margin services.
  • Recent deal wins underscore a robust outlook for domestic 5G rollout and specialized engineering exports.
Tip Icon

Stacks on Stacks: Tip Time 🤑

Asset allocation proves its worth during 'black swan' events where safe-havens like gold provide essential portfolio ballast.

Metals Market

CommodityPriceDayMonthlyYoY
Gold
USD/t.oz
5391.5 2.15% 9% 86.51%
Silver
USD/t.oz
95.294 1.57% 12% 201.02%
Copper
USD/Lbs
6.0126 0.13% -1.21% 31.44%
Steel
CNY/T
3067 -0.23% -0.74% -6.95%
Lithium
CNY/T
172500 0.29% 12.4% 129.69%
Iron Ore CNY
CNY/T
754.5 0.53% -3.45% -3.76%
Platinum
USD/t.oz
2359.4 -0.59% 6.82% 144.83%
HRC Steel
USD/T
1009.01 0.6% 3.91% 10.39%
Iron Ore
USD/T
99.06 0.03% -6.41% -7.33%
Silicon
CNY/T
8280 0.12% -5.64% -21.18%
Scrap Steel
USD/T
374 0% -0.4% 2.05%
Titanium
CNY/KG
45.5 0% 0% -3.19%
  • Precious metals surged as primary safe-haven hedges, with gold and silver prices rising significantly amid heightened global uncertainty.
  • Institutional interest in bullion-linked instruments peaked, evidenced by a surge in silver ETFs as liquidity shifted toward hard assets.
  • Industrial metals showed a mixed trend; Copper and HRC Steel gained slightly, while Steel and Silicon futures faced minor declines.
  • NMDC reported a 16% rise in iron ore production, though the stock remained flat due to global price uncertainty.
  • Critical Metals Corp posted gains following record-grade rare-earth element results, highlighting market interest in energy transition materials.
Top News Top News Developments
Headline Geopolitical Shock as Middle East Conflict Escalates
  • Assassinations in the region triggered fears of retaliatory closures of major oil supply routes.
  • Indian defense stocks like HAL and BEL decoupled from the market slump on expectations of increased spending.
  • Adani Ports faces asset security and trade continuity risks through its operations in Israel.
  • Engineering giants like L&T are under scrutiny due to their significant project footprint in the Middle East.
Headline Brent Crude Surges Toward $80 Amid Supply Risks
  • Rising oil prices threaten India's current account deficit and could force retail fuel price hikes.
  • Aviation majors face the dual blow of rising fuel costs and regional route disruptions.
  • Paint manufacturers are under margin pressure as petroleum-based derivative costs inflate.
  • Upstream players like ONGC benefit from higher realizations, while downstream refiners face margin compression.
Headline Sectoral Disruption Across IT and Agriculture
  • The IT sector remains vulnerable due to Middle East exposure and global growth concerns.
  • Basmati rice exporters face headwinds as major buyers enter instability alongside rising freight costs.
  • Fertilizer availability for the upcoming season is at risk due to transit point disruptions.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra's exit from certain agri-businesses highlights a strategic pivot toward core markets.

FII / DII Snapshot

Yesterday

FII Net: ₹-7536.36 cr

DII Net: ₹12292.81 cr

February 2026

FII Net: ₹-6640.78 cr

DII Net: ₹38423.11 cr

Daily Flows
DateFII NetDII Net
27-Feb-2026 ₹-7536.36 cr ₹12292.81 cr
26-Feb-2026 ₹-3465.99 cr ₹5031.57 cr
Monthly Flows
MonthFII NetDII Net
February 2026 ₹-6640.78 cr ₹38423.11 cr
January 2026 ₹-41435.22 cr ₹69220.74 cr
December 2025 ₹-34349.62 cr ₹79619.91 cr
November 2025 ₹-17500.31 cr ₹77083.78 cr
October 2025 ₹-2346.89 cr ₹52794.02 cr
September 2025 ₹-35301.36 cr ₹65343.59 cr

IPO Watchlist

Upcoming IPOs

  • Rajputana Stainless announced a ₹255 crore IPO for March, though pricing power may be tested by risk-off sentiment.
  • SEDEMAC Mechatronics is set to open its ₹1087.45 crore issue with a marginal grey market premium.
Rajputana Stainless 254.98
Date:9 Mar - 11 MarList:16 Mar
Subscription: - GMP: 0.00%
SEDEMAC Mechatronics 1087.45
Date:4 Mar - 6 MarList:11 Mar
Subscription: - GMP: 0.59%
Tip Icon

Cha-Ching Cheatsheet 💵

Market panic often provides liquidity for informed investors to accumulate high-quality assets at a discount.

Global Markets

CountryIndex1D1Y3Y
🇨🇳 ChinaShanghai Composite0.47%23.45%28.38%
🇰🇷 South KoreaKOSPI0.00%138.17%159.89%
🇮🇳 IndiaGIFT NIFTY-0.17%12.09%43.59%
🇺🇸 USAS&P 500-0.43%15.52%72.74%
🇬🇧 UKFTSE-0.90%23.49%36.26%
🇫🇷 FranceCAC-1.67%4.13%15.65%
🇩🇪 GermanyDAX-1.69%10.23%61.61%
🇯🇵 JapanNikkei 225-1.79%51.13%110.82%
🇸🇬 SingaporeStraits Times-2.13%24.73%49.88%
🇭🇰 Hong KongHang Seng-2.27%9.78%30.56%
🇮🇩 IndonesiaJakarta Composite-2.73%23.61%16.95%
🇹🇭 ThailandSET Composite-4.21%20.63%-9.88%
  • Iran-Israel escalation crushed risk appetite → EM outflows hit India → high-beta sectors sold off as safe-havens drew capital.
  • Dollar surged on haven demand → rupee weakened 1.2% → import-heavy sectors faced margin squeeze from elevated input costs.
  • Oil spiked 5% amid supply fears → refiners passed costs → upstream explorers gained while downstream margins compressed.
  • US growth forecasts trimmed → India FY26 GDP at 6.5% drew inflows → capex-linked industrials rallied on relative strength.
  • Fed skipped March cut on inflation → India rate differentials narrowed → RBI paused further easing pressuring debt-heavy firms.

Emerging Opportunities

Infrastructure contractors + Budget capex continuity + Buy orderbook backlog at 10x trough PE ignoring West Asia noise.
Cables & wires + Inventory normalization + Target 16% revenue CAGR via realty/infra demand as commodity prices stabilize.
Pharma exports + Tariff insulation + Accumulate defensive rotation leaders at 18x FY26 EPS post-IT weakness.
Deep-tech media + Stock splits incoming + Contrarian pivot from broadcasting as revenue jumps 109% YoY.
Auto ancillaries + US/EU tariff deals + Early-cycle valuations enable 5-10% margin expansion overlooked in risk-off.

Policy & Regulations

  • SEBI intensified its crackdown on speculative F&O trading and 'finfluencers' using AI tools to identify misleading content.
  • The RBI maintained strict prohibitions on Kotak Mahindra Bank regarding new customer onboarding due to compliance scrutiny.
  • Fino Payments Bank faced governance risks and share price correction following the arrest of its Managing Director under GST law.
  • Regulators are monitoring institutional lock-in periods ending this week, which may add further liquidity pressure to the market.

Crypto Buzz

NamePriceMarket Cap24h ChangeATH Change
Bitcoin (BTC) $66155 $1.32T -0.62%-47.53%
Ethereum (ETH) $1942.23 $234.21B -2.29%-60.73%
Tether (USDT) $0.999876 $183.62B -0.02%-24.43%
BNB (BNB) $619.84 $84.42B -0.65%-54.76%
XRP (XRP) $1.35 $82.43B -2.28%-63.00%
  • Bitcoin and digital assets displayed high sensitivity to Middle East tensions, dropping briefly before recovering to the $66,000 range.
  • Ethereum fell more sharply as the total cryptocurrency market cap contracted amid heightening geopolitical risk.
  • Predictive markets saw a surge in conflict-related bets as traders attempted to hedge against regional escalation.