Signal Above Noise

February 12, 2026

Market Summary

Daily Overview

Anthropic AI shock triggered IT rout, dragging indices lower as investors dumped high-valuation tech names despite Gift Nifty's initial positive signal.
IT weakness drove rotation into banks and financials, with Axis Bank and ICICI leading gains because tariff relief boosted rate-sensitive sectors.
Negative breadth showed 844 decliners outpacing 1,341 advancers because small/midcaps lagged large caps amid IT drag and profit booking.
FIIs bought Rs 943 crore for fourth session because US jobs data eased selling pressure, while DIIs sold Rs 125 crore to book profits.
India VIX edged higher on IT volatility because indices tested 25,900 support, trapping bulls in non-directional range per technical analysis.

Key Indices

NIFTY 50

25,807

-0.57%

SENSEX

83,674.92

-0.66%

Momentum Snapshot

Index	Price	1D	1M	1Y
Sensex	83,674.92	-0.66%	0.06%	9.90%
Nifty Next 50	69,916	-0.43%	1.77%	14.94%
Nifty Midcap 100	60,471	-0.47%	1.26%	19.14%
Nifty 50	25,807	-0.57%	0.07%	11.98%
Nifty Smallcap 250	16,250	-0.73%	0.92%	7.97%

Market Sentiment

MMI Score

65.40

Greed

MMI is in the greed zone. It suggests that investors are acting greedy in the market, but the action to be taken depends on the MMI trajectory.

Since last week: Sentiment moved from Fear (34.00) to Greed (65.40).

Sector Highlights

CPSE

+0.12%

CPSE gained +0.12% on February 12, 2026. Nifty PSU indices advanced around 1% on Wednesday, reflecting selective strength in public sector enterprises. PSU banking stocks continued to outperform their private sector counterparts, providing support to the broader CPSE sector.

Metal

+0.02%

Metal sector showed minimal movement at +0.02% on February 12, 2026. While no sector-specific drivers were identified in available market reports, the sector remained largely range-bound amid broader market consolidation and mixed global cues affecting commodities and capital-intensive industries.

Bank

-0.01%

Bank sector declined marginally at -0.01% on February 12, 2026. Nifty Private Bank slipped 0.2% as broader market conditions remained subdued. However, Bank Nifty formed a bullish hammer-like candle with a long lower shadow, signaling buying interest at lower levels and suggesting potential recovery if the index moves above Monday's high of 60,876.

Realty

-1.45%

Realty sector declined 1.45% on February 12, 2026. While specific realty-focused triggers were not detailed in market reports, the sector was caught in broader profit-booking and cautious sentiment as investors awaited Q3 earnings results and monitored macro developments including US employment data and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.

-5.51%

IT sector fell 5.51% on February 12, 2026, with Nifty IT declining 1.8% and the sector slumping 12% for the year. The sharp decline was driven by the 'Anthropic shock'—concerns about AI disruption in the technology sector—which triggered a significant selloff in US-listed ADRs of top Indian IT companies on the previous trading day, spilling over into domestic markets. Tech stocks were expected to struggle in the near term as investors rotated away from IT toward better-performing sectors.

Sector Scoreboard

Sector

CPSE

+0.12%

+0.08%

+24.89%

+149.18%

Metal

+0.02%

+1.93%

+49.47%

+112.63%

Bank

-0.01%

+0.84%

+22.96%

+46.17%

Realty

-1.45%

+3.68%

-0.96%

+106.06%

-5.51%

-3.44%

-16.38%

+13.69%

Stock Spotlight Of The Day

State Bank of India

Market Cap

11,00,658 Cr

Current Price

₹1,192

Stock P/E

13.6

Dividend Yield

1.33%

ROCE

6.47%

ROE

17.2%

Shareholding Changes (Impact Factors)

FIIs

QoQ

0.77%

YoY

0.07%

Stable foreign holding

DIIs

QoQ

-0.61%

YoY

2.25%

Stable domestic holding

Promoters

QoQ

YoY

-1.93%

No change in promoter holding

Quarterly Summary (Absolute)

Revenue

QoQ

Slight growth

1.99%

YoY

Slight growth

4.76%

Expenses

QoQ

Mild increase

6.27%

YoY

Costs rising

18.35%

Net Profit

QoQ

Slight uptick

1.44%

YoY

Healthy growth

13.82%

Profit & Loss (Compounded)

Sales Growth

10 Years

5 Years

13%

3 Years

19%

TTM

Profit Growth

10 Years

16%

5 Years

36%

3 Years

30%

TTM

Stock Price CAGR

10 Years

22%

5 Years

25%

3 Years

30%

1 Year

61%

Return on Equity

10 Years

10%

5 Years

15%

3 Years

17%

Last Year

17%

Fundamentals Corner

While the company maintains a stable 17% ROE, its growth engine is stalling as TTM profit growth has collapsed to 2% from a five-year average of 36%.

A massive disconnect has emerged between the 61% stock price surge over the last year and underlying performance, especially with quarterly expenses now rising nearly four times faster than revenue.

Investors should be wary of this divergence; the current momentum appears driven by sentiment rather than the slowing fundamental reality of single-digit sales growth.

News TidBits

State Bank of India (SBI) reached new 52-week highs, reflecting a successful multi-year turnaround driven by superior risk management and aggressive digitization efforts.
The bank is currently outperforming its private sector peers as robust domestic credit growth offsets the potential earnings volatility caused by rising treasury yields.
As global-facing sectors like IT face structural valuation derating, investor preference is pivoting toward domestic-focused credit leaders where SBI holds dominant market share.
The stock’s upward trajectory, even amidst broad index consolidation, underscores a K-shaped market recovery that favors large-cap lenders with strong balance sheets.
Improved asset quality and steady margin expansion position SBI as a primary beneficiary of the ongoing Indian infrastructure and capital expenditure cycle.

Stacks on Stacks: Tip Time 🤑

Maruti Suzuki’s 12,230% return since 2003 proves that the greatest wealth is generated by identifying market leaders early and staying invested through multiple economic cycles.

Metals Market

Commodity

Price

Day

Monthly

YoY

Gold

USD/t.oz

5063.99

-0.41%

10.41%

72.74%

Silver

USD/t.oz

83.284

-1.2%

-4.17%

157.31%

Copper

USD/Lbs

5.9888

0.39%

-0.45%

25.78%

Steel

CNY/T

3039

-0.03%

-3.37%

-5.15%

Lithium

CNY/T

142500

3.26%

-10.66%

86.4%

Iron Ore CNY

CNY/T

762.5

-0.26%

-6.56%

-7.41%

Platinum

USD/t.oz

2118.7

-1.26%

-9.97%

104.63%

HRC Steel

USD/T

974.05

-0.2%

3.4%

27%

Iron Ore

USD/T

100.59

-0.25%

-7.08%

-6.22%

Silicon

CNY/T

8265

-0.66%

-3.5%

-23.54%

Scrap Steel

USD/T

374

0.13%

-0.93%

4.03%

Titanium

CNY/KG

45.5

1.11%

Silver is emerging as a critical commodity for 2025 as historically low exchange inventories face rising industrial demand from the high-growth AI and solar energy sectors.
Industrial metals like Zinc are seeing supportive price action due to solid global demand and raw material shortages at North American smelters, which are expected to tighten short-term supply.
Precious metals continue to influence mining equities, though Indian major Hindalco faces near-term cash flow pressure of ₹14,400 crore due to production disruptions at its Novelis Oswego plant.
Copper and Lithium prices remain volatile but sensitive to manufacturing cycles, with Lithium recording a notable 3.26% daily gain amid shifting energy transition demands.

Top News Developments

Structural Derating Hits Indian IT Sector

The Nifty IT index plunged over 4% as agentic AI advancements from competitors like Anthropic threaten the traditional labor-arbitrage billing models of Indian firms.
TCS losing its status as India’s second-most valuable company to ICICI Bank underscores a fundamental shift in investor preference toward domestic credit growth.
Moody’s estimates that potential US H-1B visa fee hikes could cost Indian IT majors $250 million, further squeezing margins already strained by AI R&D costs.
Global 'super-investor' activity suggests that while service providers face disruption, platform owners with integrated AI are the primary beneficiaries of the current tech cycle.

US Macro Data Dampens Rate Cut Expectations

Stronger-than-expected US January jobs data has reduced Federal Reserve rate-cut odds, leading to higher US Treasury yields near 4.18% that act as a gravitational pull on global equities.
The delay in Fed easing cycles particularly hurts rate-sensitive Indian IT firms that derive over 60% of their revenue from the US market.
Elevated US yields are neutralizing positive domestic earnings surprises, forcing Indian investors to focus on stocks with intrinsic drivers rather than macro tailwinds.
USD strength resulting from the jobs data could increase the cost of dollar-priced commodities, potentially impacting the margins of Indian importers.

Earnings-Led Rotation into Banks and Industrial PSUs

HAL recorded a 30% profit jump and a ₹35 dividend, demonstrating strong cash-flow generation despite market concerns over aircraft delivery timelines.
Muthoot Finance reported a 95% surge in net profit, driven by high gold prices and a 48% growth in Assets Under Management for collateralized credit.
Kirloskar Oil Engines’ 56% profit jump signals a robust capital expenditure cycle currently fueling the Indian industrial and infrastructure machinery sectors.
Retail investor concentration in stocks like BHEL, with over 17 lakh small shareholders, creates a high-sensitivity environment prone to sharp volatility on earnings news.
Mahindra & Mahindra remains a prime beneficiary of both urban discretionary spending and rural cyclical recovery, supported by strong SUV market share gains.

FII / DII Snapshot

Yesterday

FII Net: ₹943.81 cr

DII Net: ₹-125.36 cr

January 2026

FII Net: ₹-41435.22 cr

DII Net: ₹69220.74 cr

Daily Flows

Date	FII Net	DII Net
11-Feb-2026	₹943.81 cr	₹-125.36 cr
10-Feb-2026	₹69.45 cr	₹1174.21 cr
09-Feb-2026	₹2254.64 cr	₹4.15 cr
06-Feb-2026	₹1950.77 cr	₹-1265.06 cr
05-Feb-2026	₹-2150.51 cr	₹1129.82 cr

Monthly Flows

Month	FII Net	DII Net
January 2026	₹-41435.22 cr	₹69220.74 cr
December 2025	₹-34349.62 cr	₹79619.91 cr
November 2025	₹-17500.31 cr	₹77083.78 cr
October 2025	₹-2346.89 cr	₹52794.02 cr
September 2025	₹-35301.36 cr	₹65343.59 cr
August 2025	₹-46902.92 cr	₹94828.55 cr

IPO Watchlist

Upcoming IPOs

PNGS Reva Diamond Jewel is scheduled to open for subscription from February 24 to February 26, with a total issue size of ₹380 crore targeting the premium consumer discretionary segment.

PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery

380.00

Date:24 Feb - 26 Feb	List:4 Mar
Subscription: -	GMP: 0.00%

Cha-Ching Cheatsheet 💵

In a 'two-speed' economy, true outperformance comes from identifying niche players that maintain pricing power and high earnings visibility despite broader macro disruption.

Global Markets

Country

Index

🇰🇷 South Korea

KOSPI

3.04%

117.48%

125.15%

🇹🇭 Thailand

SET Composite

2.07%

12.27%

-13.42%

🇩🇪 Germany

DAX

1.61%

14.04%

64.99%

🇫🇷 France

CAC

0.68%

4.25%

16.12%

🇸🇬 Singapore

Straits Times

0.64%

29.94%

50.89%

🇯🇵 Japan

Nikkei 225

0.40%

49.17%

109.18%

🇬🇧 UK

FTSE

0.20%

19.14%

33.12%

🇨🇳 China

Shanghai Composite

0.05%

24.59%

25.88%

🇺🇸 USA

S&P 500

0.00%

14.70%

69.70%

🇮🇳 India

GIFT NIFTY

-0.01%

11.95%

45.26%

🇮🇩 Indonesia

Jakarta Composite

-0.31%

26.54%

19.79%

🇭🇰 Hong Kong

Hang Seng

-0.95%

26.84%

27.62%

US jobs addition of 130,000 → risk appetite shifts → FIIs turned buyers in six of seven sessions, supporting Indian equities amid consolidation.
Strong US jobs data strengthened dollar → currency/dollar moves → Rupee depreciation hurt Q3 earnings, pressuring exporters like chemicals.
Global nickel shortage → commodity linkages (metals) → Metals gained as supply constraints lifted domestic prices despite broader caution.
Fed no-rate-cut signal → growth expectations → RBI rate cycle paused, forcing reliance on earnings from autos, telecom, financials.
Easing US trade tensions → rate differentials → Lower EM borrowing costs channeled FII flows into infrastructure, renewables.

Emerging Opportunities

Textiles + tariff normalization + buy oversold exporters as 18% cut enables margin expansion while market ignores for IT fears.

Auto ancillaries + trade deal clarity + target early-cycle plays because US access lifts volumes amid domestic consumption strength.

Financials + credit growth cycle + load private banks as RBI liquidity aids loan expansion despite IT-led caution.

Metals + nickel shortage + accumulate commodity plays because global deficits drive prices higher in infra-linked segment.

Clean energy + budget acceleration + contrarian dip-buy renewables as data center demand surges while tech struggles.

Policy & Regulations

New RBI draft guidelines aimed at curbing mis-selling in bancassurance pose a sentiment risk to major life insurers like HDFC Life and SBI Life by targeting their primary distribution channels.
SEBI is advancing the SWAGAT-FI framework to deepen the corporate bond market, a move expected to lower the cost of capital for highly-rated Indian corporates over the medium term.
A recent US-India trade deal has significantly boosted the seafood export sector, evidenced by Avanti Feeds surging 17% following the reduction of export tariffs.
Regulators are intensifying oversight of financial institutions, including requesting Kotak Mahindra Bank to assist in probes regarding historical market volatility and capital flows.

Crypto Buzz

Name

Price

Market Cap

24h Change

ATH Change

Bitcoin (BTC)

$68021

$1.36T

1.53%

-46.05%

Ethereum (ETH)

$1994.35

$240.48B

2.22%

-59.68%

Tether (USDT)

$0.999451

$183.91B

-0.01%

-24.46%

XRP (XRP)

$1.4

$85.08B

1.96%

-61.65%

BNB (BNB)

$617.93

$84.17B

4.44%

-54.90%

Bitcoin has stabilized in the $67,000–$68,000 range, with demand increasingly driven by institutional ETF flows rather than the retail-led speculation of previous cycles.
India is hardening its digital-asset regulatory perimeter with enforceable AML/CFT rules, signaling tighter oversight but providing more structure for institutional participants.
The global crypto market cap rose 1.5% to $2.4 trillion, though major assets like Ethereum remain relatively flat as the market awaits clearer signals on US interest rate trajectories.