MMI is in the fear zone. It suggests that investors are fearful in the market, but the action to be taken depends on the MMI trajectory.
Since last week: Sentiment moved from Ext. Fear (24.98) to Fear (40.47).
Stock Spotlight Of The Day
State Bank of India
Market Cap
9,84,353 Cr
Current Price
₹1,066
Stock P/E
12.1
Dividend Yield
1.49%
ROCE
6.47%
ROE
17.2%
Shareholding Changes (Impact Factors)
FIIs
QoQ
0.77%
YoY
0.07%
Stable foreign holding
DIIs
QoQ
-0.61%
YoY
2.25%
Stable domestic holding
Promoters
QoQ
0%
YoY
-1.93%
No change in promoter holding
Quarterly Summary (Absolute)
Revenue
QoQ
Slight growth
1.99%
YoY
Slight growth
4.76%
Expenses
QoQ
Mild increase
6.27%
YoY
Costs rising
18.35%
Net Profit
QoQ
Slight uptick
1.44%
YoY
Healthy growth
13.82%
Profit & Loss (Compounded)
Sales Growth
10 Years
9%
5 Years
13%
3 Years
19%
TTM
6%
Profit Growth
10 Years
16%
5 Years
36%
3 Years
30%
TTM
2%
Stock Price CAGR
10 Years
21%
5 Years
22%
3 Years
25%
1 Year
45%
Return on Equity
10 Years
10%
5 Years
15%
3 Years
17%
Last Year
17%
Fundamentals Corner
While long-term ROE has stabilized at a healthy 17%, growth momentum is hitting a wall with TTM profit growth collapsing to just 2% as quarterly expenses outpace revenue gains by fourfold.
A stark disconnect exists between the stock’s 45% price surge this year and its stalling bottom line, suggesting the current rally is fueled by sentiment rather than the cooling fundamental reality.
The low 12.1 P/E confirms that the market is already pricing in this significant margin pressure and the sharp slowdown in sales compared to the company's high-growth three-year average.
News TidBits
State Bank of India (SBI) reinforced its leadership with a 24.5% jump in Q3 profit, driven by resilient domestic credit demand.
Management provided robust FY26 credit growth guidance of 13–15%, signaling a positive outlook for the banking sector's role in India's growth story.
The stock is benefiting from a 'buy on dips' pattern among domestic institutional investors, acting as a cushion against volatility in more export-sensitive sectors.
As a key beneficiary of infrastructure expansion, SBI is well-positioned to leverage the 'Viksit Bharat' theme for sustained valuation rerating.
Investors should monitor the impact of a stable 5.25% repo rate on the bank's net interest margins as liquidity conditions evolve.
Stacks on Stacks: Tip Time 🤑
Risk is not a single number like volatility; it is the permanent loss of capital that occurs when an investor is forced to sell a quality asset during a temporary market glitch.
Metals Market
Commodity
Price
Day
Monthly
YoY
Gold
USD/t.oz
4968.56
3.98%
11.49%
73.76%
Silver
USD/t.oz
77.978
10.09%
-0.27%
145.27%
Copper
USD/Lbs
5.882
1.05%
0.37%
28.3%
Steel
CNY/T
3055
-0.81%
-3.26%
-6.86%
Lithium
CNY/T
134500
-6.6%
0.75%
74%
Iron Ore CNY
CNY/T
761
-0.98%
-7.7%
-7.31%
Platinum
USD/t.oz
2099.4
1.39%
-7.46%
110.47%
HRC Steel
USD/T
977
0.41%
4.16%
29.4%
Iron Ore
USD/T
100.11
-0.91%
-7.72%
-5.89%
Silicon
CNY/T
8450
-1.17%
-5.06%
-23.18%
Scrap Steel
USD/T
374
0%
1.08%
4.03%
Titanium
CNY/KG
45.5
0%
1.11%
0%
Precious metals exhibit high volatility as Gold surged nearly 4% to $4,968, while Silver jumped 10% daily despite a massive 38% plunge in Silver ETFs since January due to margin hikes.
Industrial metals show mixed trends; Copper and Platinum saw modest gains, while Lithium (-6.6%) and Steel prices weakened due to supply-demand imbalances and infrastructure cycle shifts.
China's central bank continues its multi-month gold accumulation trend, providing a structural demand floor for bullion that offsets short-term tactical profit-booking by retail investors.
Ongoing discussions between PM Modi and President Trump regarding an interim trade framework have turned FPIs into net buyers of ₹8,100 crore in early February.
Textile exporters are set for a major tailwind as US tariffs are projected to drop from 50% to 18%, providing immediate margin relief for home textile manufacturers.
The deal acts as a strategic hedge against global tariff threats, potentially stabilizing the rupee below the 90/USD mark by early 2026.
The Nifty IT index remains at a critical juncture; maintaining the 35,400 level is essential for the sector to benefit from the resulting 'risk-on' sentiment.
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% Amidst Global Yield Volatility
The RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25% following a prior 25 bps cut, balancing domestic inflation control with the need for growth stability.
The decision has capped equity downside risks at 1-2%, encouraging domestic institutions to maintain a 'buy on dips' stance for banking and consumer staples.
Stability in domestic rates is attracting renewed foreign interest in Indian debt, though the central bank remains cautious about opening settlement channels to all FIIs.
Rate-sensitive sectors like Autos and IT are facing localized headwinds, making private banks and FMCG the preferred defensive plays for retail investors.
Earnings Super-Week to Test FY26 Management Outlooks
Upcoming results from Mahindra & Mahindra, ONGC, Titan, and Hindalco will serve as the final health check for corporate India's Q3 performance.
Investors are closely contrasting established execution leaders like Bajaj Finance with future-scale plays like Jio Financial Services (JFSL).
Scarcity premiums for AI-driven models are being tested as the market shifts focus from thematic hype to actual margin delivery and founder-led risk management.
High-yield seekers are focusing on upcoming ex-dividend dates for Power Grid, Hero MotoCorp, and RVNL starting February 9.
IPO Watchlist
Upcoming IPOs
Fractal Analytics is set to launch as India's first pure-play AI public issue, testing investor appetite for high-valuation tech assets and scarcity-value business models.
Aye Finance is scheduled to open for subscription on February 9, though early indicators show a neutral grey market premium (GMP) of 0%.
The IPO market is entering a milestone week as high P/E multiples meet increasing scrutiny over founder-led risks and volatile operating margins.
Fractal Analytics
2833.90
Date:9 Feb - 11 Feb
List:16 Feb
Subscription: -
GMP: 2.00%
Aye Finance
1010.00
Date:9 Feb - 11 Feb
List:16 Feb
Subscription: -
GMP: 0.00%
Cha-Ching Cheatsheet 💵
In a 'volume-led, realization-lagged' market, prioritize companies with pricing power over those that only grow through sheer quantity, as margins eventually dictate long-term survival.
Global Markets
Country
Category
Current PE
Forward PE
Forward PEG
🇫🇷 France
Undervalued
17.9
15.3
1.0
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Undervalued
15.3
13.7
1.3
🇩🇪 Germany
Fairly Valued
19.0
15.6
0.9
🇦🇺 Australia
Fairly Valued
21.1
19.1
2.1
🇹🇭 Thailand
Fairly Valued
15.6
-
-
🇮🇩 Indonesia
Fairly Valued
17.6
12.0
0.4
🇸🇬 Singapore
Fairly Valued
17.7
-
-
🇨🇳 China
Fairly Valued
18.8
15.5
0.9
🇰🇷 South Korea
Fairly Valued
21.1
12.9
0.3
🇺🇸 United States
Fairly Valued
25.7
22.2
1.6
🇮🇳 India
Fairly Valued
21.2
21.0
22.3
* Valuation category is calculated as a weighted average of PE ratio, CAPE, forward PE, historical PEG, and forward PEG. We are currently showing PE, Forward PE, and Forward PEG for reference.
Trump-Iran talks dropped oil 3% → commodity linkages → import bill fell easing inflation → RBI raised CPI forecast to 2.1% but held rates.
Rupee recovered from 90.30/USD → currency/dollar moves → FIIs injected Rs 8,129 crore → equities rallied across sectors.
Gold crashed on stronger dollar → risk appetite shifts → core inflation pressures eased → boosted RBI's neutral stance confidence.
US trade deal progress lifted EM growth outlooks → growth expectations → India manufacturing pivot gained traction → capex sectors advanced.
RBI repo steady at 5.25% vs Fed uncertainty → rate differentials → bond yields stabilized → financials led sectoral rotation.
Emerging Opportunities
Infrastructure developers + Budget capex continuity + long equity bets as execution strength separates winners from laggards.
Financial lenders + RBI neutral stance + debt investments since transmission lowered short-end rates by 105 bps.
Export manufacturing + India-US trade deal + margin expansion plays as tariffs ease despite rupee volatility.
Gold jewelers + price crash correction + contrarian longs because core inflation impact peaks short-term.
Private capex industrials + policy shift to production + stock-specific picks on balance sheet strength over index beta.
Policy & Regulations
The RBI has proposed allowing government bond settlements via Euroclear exclusively for long-term sovereign wealth funds, intentionally excluding FIIs to prevent destabilizing capital outflows.
A recent technical glitch at a major depository briefly disrupted the T+1 settlement cycle, highlighting infrastructure vulnerabilities that regulators must address amidst record trading volumes.
Domestic fintech firms are entering an 'efficiency era' similar to global peers like Block, shifting focus toward lean operations and profitability over aggressive scale-up strategies.
Crypto Buzz
Name
Price
Market Cap
24h Change
ATH Change
Bitcoin (BTC)
$70567
$1.41T
3.88%
-44.03%
Ethereum (ETH)
$2107.27
$254.40B
4.95%
-57.39%
Tether (USDT)
$0.999241
$185.58B
-0.02%
-24.47%
XRP (XRP)
$1.44
$87.70B
3.28%
-60.53%
BNB (BNB)
$641.47
$87.46B
1.17%
-53.18%
Bitcoin has rebounded 3.88% to cross the $70,500 mark, leading a broader market recovery that has pushed the total crypto market capitalization to $2.45 trillion.
New market pressures are emerging from 'crypto-hoarding firms,' whose large-scale accumulation behavior is being closely monitored by analysts for potential price volatility impacts.
Heightened trading volume in Ethereum and XRP suggests renewed buying interest, though the market remains sensitive to the 50% drawdown seen from previous peaks.
Indian Macroeconomy
Currency
Exchange rate against USD
90.6
0.28
Previous: 90.32
As of Feb 26
Nominal GDP
Annual growth including inflation
8.2%
0.4%
Previous: 7.8%
As of Sep 25
CPI Inflation
Consumer price increase
1.33%
0.62%
Previous: 0.71%
As of Dec 25
Repo Rate
RBI lending rate
5.25%
→
0%
Previous: 5.25%
As of Feb 26
Trade Balance
Exports minus imports
$-25.04B
$-0.51B
Previous: $-24.53B
As of Dec 25
Current Account
Global trade, income & transfers
$-12292M
$-9570M
Previous: $-2722M
As of Sep 25
Mfg PMI
Manufacturing activity level
55.4 points
0.4 points
Previous: 55 points
As of Jan 26
Services PMI
Services activity level
58.5 points
0.5 points
Previous: 58 points
As of Jan 26
India's GDP growth remains robust at 8.2%, supported by expanding Manufacturing (55.4) and Services (58.5) PMI data that signals strong underlying economic momentum.
The 'Viksit Bharat' theme is gaining institutional traction as infrastructure expansion and new trade frameworks act as primary engines for long-term valuation rerating.
Structural growth in power infrastructure and telecom is accelerating, with firms like Hitachi Energy and Nokia expanding Indian operations to meet AI-driven data center and grid demands.
The cement sector is experiencing a volume-led recovery, though pricing pressure continues to impact EBITDA margins despite double-digit growth in sales volumes.
