MMI is in the fear zone. It suggests that investors are fearful in the market, but the action to be taken depends on the MMI trajectory.
Since last week: Sentiment moved from Ext. Fear (24.98) to Fear (40.47).
Stock Spotlight Of The Day
State Bank of India
Market Cap
9,84,353 Cr
Current Price
₹1,066
Stock P/E
12.1
Dividend Yield
1.49%
ROCE
6.47%
ROE
17.2%
Shareholding Changes (Impact Factors)
FIIs
QoQ
0.77%
YoY
0.07%
Stable foreign holding
DIIs
QoQ
-0.61%
YoY
2.25%
Stable domestic holding
Promoters
QoQ
0%
YoY
-1.93%
No change in promoter holding
Quarterly Summary (Absolute)
Revenue
QoQ
Slight growth
1.99%
YoY
Slight growth
4.76%
Expenses
QoQ
Mild increase
6.27%
YoY
Costs rising
18.35%
Net Profit
QoQ
Slight uptick
1.44%
YoY
Healthy growth
13.82%
Profit & Loss (Compounded)
Sales Growth
10 Years
9%
5 Years
13%
3 Years
19%
TTM
6%
Profit Growth
10 Years
16%
5 Years
36%
3 Years
30%
TTM
2%
Stock Price CAGR
10 Years
21%
5 Years
22%
3 Years
25%
1 Year
45%
Return on Equity
10 Years
10%
5 Years
15%
3 Years
17%
Last Year
17%
Fundamentals Corner
While long-term ROE remains stable at 17%, growth momentum has hit a significant roadblock with TTM profit growth collapsing to 2% as quarterly expenses (+18% YoY) aggressively outpace revenue (+5%).
There is a stark disconnect between the 45% one-year stock price rally and deteriorating near-term margins, suggesting the market is betting on a valuation re-rating of the low 12.1 P/E rather than reacting to actual earnings strength.
News TidBits
State Bank of India reported a record quarterly net profit of ₹21,028 crore, reflecting a 24.5% year-on-year growth that underscores the strength of the PSU banking leader.
The bank's performance was driven by robust net interest income growth that surpassed market estimates, signaling healthy credit demand across the Indian economy.
Strong operational efficiencies and improved asset quality have allowed the bank to maintain a resilient outlook despite broader global macroeconomic uncertainties.
As a primary proxy for the Indian economy, SBI's leadership in the lending space positions it to benefit directly from the government's aggressive infrastructure push.
Retail investors should monitor net interest margins closely as competition for deposits and rising credit costs remain key variables for the upcoming fiscal year.
Stacks on Stacks: Tip Time 🤑
The market often charges a high premium for a cheery consensus; the most asymmetric returns are usually found by investigating sectors that the herd has currently labeled as 'uninvestable'.
Metals Market
Commodity
Price
Day
Monthly
YoY
Gold
USD/t.oz
4968.56
3.98%
11.49%
73.76%
Silver
USD/t.oz
77.978
10.09%
-0.27%
145.27%
Copper
USD/Lbs
5.882
1.05%
0.37%
28.3%
Steel
CNY/T
3055
-0.81%
-3.26%
-6.86%
Lithium
CNY/T
134500
-6.6%
0.75%
74%
Iron Ore CNY
CNY/T
758
-1.37%
-8.07%
-7.67%
Platinum
USD/t.oz
2099.4
1.39%
-7.46%
110.47%
HRC Steel
USD/T
977
0.41%
4.16%
29.4%
Iron Ore
USD/T
100.11
-0.91%
-7.72%
-5.89%
Silicon
CNY/T
8450
-1.17%
-5.06%
-23.18%
Scrap Steel
USD/T
374
0%
1.08%
4.03%
Titanium
CNY/KG
45.5
0%
1.11%
0%
Gold prices are experiencing a 'healthy reset' with a 3.98% daily surge, supported by record central bank purchases and its critical role in bolstering India's national forex reserves.
Industrial metals are showing mixed trends; while Silver saw a sharp 10.09% daily rebound driven by bargain hunting, it remains technically weak and 40% below its record highs.
Lithium prices have plummeted 6.6% recently due to shifts in the global EV supply chain, while Steel and Iron Ore face downward pressure from softening global manufacturing demand.
Indian metal majors like Tata Steel are navigating this volatility by leveraging recovery in European operations to offset localized losses in other international units.
Top News Developments
India-US Trade Framework Triggers Export Optimism
Tariff reductions to 18% on Indian goods and a $500 billion trade target act as major sentiment boosters for FIIs and exporters.
Exporters in the textiles, chemicals, and pharma sectors are the primary beneficiaries of the new interim trade framework.
The deal includes strategic protections for sensitive domestic agricultural sectors like dairy and poultry to safeguard rural livelihoods.
Legal transition for these benefits will only occur after the formal pact signing, requiring exporters to maintain a short-term 'wait and watch' approach.
Global Market Rotation and the $600B AI Capital Surge
The Dow Jones crossing 50,000 reflects a global capital rotation from tech into economically sensitive sectors like industrials and transportation.
A projected $600 billion AI capital expenditure surge is fueling investor anxiety over long-term returns for tech giants like Alphabet and Amazon.
Indian IT stocks are underperforming as global investors shift focus toward semiconductor-led rallies in Taiwan and South Korea.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index weightings are shifting, putting pressure on Indian equities to deliver higher earnings growth to remain competitive.
Tata Steel's nine-fold profit surge shows how European recovery can offset domestic losses, while Tata Motors faces headwinds from JLR cyberattacks.
Kalyan Jewellers' 90% profit jump reflects the rapid formalization of the jewellery sector and strong festive demand for gold.
Execution risks are emerging in the electronics supply chain, evidenced by Kaynes Technology's trimmed guidance and delayed 'Kavach' projects.
The smallcap segment is seeing a tactical rebound from oversold levels, though experts warn that earnings visibility remains patchy for many firms.
IPO Watchlist
Upcoming IPOs
Fractal Analytics and Aye Finance are scheduled to open for subscription on February 9, with both companies already seeing strong demand in their anchor books.
The National Stock Exchange has formally approved its long-delayed IPO via an Offer for Sale, which is expected to trigger significant value unlocking for its institutional shareholders.
Fractal Analytics raised ₹1,248 crore from anchors, signaling high market confidence in AI-driven business models ahead of its public debut.
Fractal Analytics
2833.90
Date:9 Feb - 11 Feb
List:16 Feb
Subscription: -
GMP: 5.33%
Aye Finance
1010.00
Date:9 Feb - 11 Feb
List:16 Feb
Subscription: -
GMP: 0.00%
Cha-Ching Cheatsheet 💵
Portfolio growth is more about the avoidance of 'unforced errors' like FOMO-driven buying than it is about finding the single perfect multibagger stock.
Global Markets
Country
Category
Current PE
Forward PE
Forward PEG
🇫🇷 France
Undervalued
17.9
15.3
1.0
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Undervalued
15.3
13.7
1.3
🇩🇪 Germany
Fairly Valued
19.0
15.6
0.9
🇦🇺 Australia
Fairly Valued
21.1
19.1
2.1
🇹🇭 Thailand
Fairly Valued
15.6
-
-
🇮🇩 Indonesia
Fairly Valued
17.6
12.0
0.4
🇸🇬 Singapore
Fairly Valued
17.7
-
-
🇨🇳 China
Fairly Valued
18.8
15.5
0.9
🇰🇷 South Korea
Fairly Valued
21.1
12.9
0.3
🇺🇸 United States
Fairly Valued
25.7
22.2
1.6
🇮🇳 India
Fairly Valued
21.2
21.0
22.3
* Valuation category is calculated as a weighted average of PE ratio, CAPE, forward PE, historical PEG, and forward PEG. We are currently showing PE, Forward PE, and Forward PEG for reference.
US tech earnings misses crushed risk appetite → EM equities sold off → Indian high-beta sectors extended losses as global momentum faded.
Dollar steadied post-earnings → rupee held firm → import-heavy sectors gained breathing room because currency pressure eased on rate-sensitive flows.
Big Tech capex guidance spiked energy demand outlook → oil/metal commodities firmed → Indian energy index rolled into improving quadrant via linkage flows.
Amazon/Alphabet capex hikes signaled AI growth persistence → upgraded EM growth expectations → IPO pipeline accelerated as Fractal Analytics drew AI-themed bids.
Fed path priced in after dovish signals → US-India rate differentials narrowed → financials attracted FIIs because NBFC IPOs like Aye Finance timed lower borrowing costs.
Emerging Opportunities
AI platforms via Fractal Analytics IPO + post-earnings capex surge + enter fresh issue because US client revenue de-risks growth in pure-play listing.
NBFC micro-lenders like Aye Finance + 18-state MSME coverage + book-built IPO because rate easing boosts loan expansion margins now.
Renewables via Clean Max Enviro + Rs 3600 crore raise + scale capacity because commodity uptick aids project economics amid energy shift.
Precision manufacturing via Indo MIM + largest Rs 5500 crore IPO + contrarian dip buy because midcaps weaken yet export chains recover.
Media index + relative momentum improvement + accumulate laggards because ad spends rebound post-tech rout ignores domestic consumption resilience.
Policy & Regulations
The RBI has simplified foreign investment by merging the ₹2.5 lakh crore VRR cap into general FPI debt limits, significantly easing the entry process for global debt investors.
SEBI's mandate for Alternative Investment Funds to report Net Asset Values by May 2026 is set to institutionalize transparency and operational efficiency in the private credit market.
The government's removal of fuel-efficiency concessions for small cars creates a policy headwind for Maruti Suzuki while favoring competitors with more advanced green technologies.
The National Stock Exchange's new coal trading platform aims to fix price inefficiencies in the physical market, potentially benefiting smaller industrial power producers.
DIPAM's receipt of financial bids for IDBI Bank from contenders like Fairfax and Emirates NBD marks a critical milestone in the long-awaited privatization of the lender.
Crypto Buzz
Name
Price
Market Cap
24h Change
ATH Change
Bitcoin (BTC)
$68966
$1.37T
4.05%
-45.30%
Ethereum (ETH)
$2045.43
$246.22B
6.41%
-58.65%
Tether (USDT)
$0.999224
$185.57B
0.04%
-24.47%
BNB (BNB)
$640.5
$87.23B
1.14%
-53.25%
XRP (XRP)
$1.41
$85.91B
3.79%
-61.21%
Bitcoin has surged over 4% to approximately $68,966, leading a relief rally that saw several crypto-linked stocks jump by as much as 25% in recent trading sessions.
A $40 billion transfer error at South Korea’s Bithumb exchange serves as a stark reminder of the operational risks and potential for extreme volatility in the exchange ecosystem.
Significant outflows of nearly $5 billion from crypto-ETFs highlight ongoing liquidity pressures and investor caution despite the recent rebound in spot prices.
Indian Macroeconomy
Currency
Exchange rate against USD
90.6
0.28
Previous: 90.32
As of Feb 26
Nominal GDP
Annual growth including inflation
8.2%
0.4%
Previous: 7.8%
As of Sep 25
CPI Inflation
Consumer price increase
1.33%
0.62%
Previous: 0.71%
As of Dec 25
Repo Rate
RBI lending rate
5.25%
→
0%
Previous: 5.25%
As of Feb 26
Trade Balance
Exports minus imports
$-25.04B
$-0.51B
Previous: $-24.53B
As of Dec 25
Current Account
Global trade, income & transfers
$-12292M
$-9570M
Previous: $-2722M
As of Sep 25
Mfg PMI
Manufacturing activity level
55.4 points
0.4 points
Previous: 55 points
As of Jan 26
Services PMI
Services activity level
58.5 points
0.5 points
Previous: 58 points
As of Jan 26
India's annual GDP growth rate remains robust at 8.2%, signaling strong domestic momentum despite a widening trade balance of -$25.04 billion which highlights ongoing external pressures.
The Reserve Bank of India has maintained the repo rate at 5.25% to balance inflation management, currently at 1.33%, with the need to sustain growth in manufacturing and services.
A record forex reserve of $723.7 billion, driven largely by rising gold valuations, provides a significant cushion for the Rupee against global currency volatility.
Effective infrastructure spending in the Union Budget is up 18% year-on-year, prioritizing housing, water, and transport to drive long-term industrial demand across the country.
