Indian stock market on February 3, 2026, remains volatile post-Budget, with Sensex consolidating around 81,666 after a 0.73% drop on February 2; retail sentiment cautious amid STT hike in F&O triggering selling pressure.
Nifty 50 expected to consolidate in 25,000-25,500 range amid Budget reactions, RBI MPC, and Q3 results; retail investors wary of higher transaction costs but eyeing long-term shift to cash markets.
Market sentiment subdued with softer liquidity in F&O-heavy segments; overall commentary highlights balanced Budget growth support offset by fiscal discipline and bond yield spikes.
Retail investors digesting surprise STT increase and higher borrowing targets, leading to defensive positioning; key supports at Nifty 24,900-25,000 amid intermittent volatility.
Broader market shows consolidation with small bullish candles; prevailing retail caution prevails ahead of policy outcomes, though structural positives from Budget noted.
Key Indices
NIFTY 50
25,685
2.38%
SENSEX
83,932.23
2.77%
Momentum Snapshot
Index
Price
1D
1M
1Y
Sensex
83,932.23
2.77%
-1.76%
6.81%
Nifty Midcap 100
59,224
2.70%
-3.49%
11.77%
Nifty Smallcap 250
15,910
2.60%
-5.27%
1.48%
Nifty 50
25,685
2.38%
-2.44%
9.95%
Nifty Next 50
68,623
2.31%
-2.55%
9.56%
Market Sentiment
MMI Score
28.48
Extreme Fear
MMI is in the extreme fear zone. Extreme fear (<30) suggests a good time to open fresh positions , as markets are likely to be oversold and might turn upwards.
Since last week: Sentiment moved from Ext. Fear (23.01) to Ext. Fear (28.48).
Sector Highlights
Realty
+4.39%
No sector-specific news or drivers identified in available data for +4.39% gain.
Auto
+3.38%
No sector-specific news or drivers identified in available data for +3.38% gain.
Pharma
+2.81%
No sector-specific news or drivers identified in available data for +2.81% gain.
CPSE
+0.80%
Power Grid Corp shares jumped 8% after raising FY26 capex guidance to Rs 32,000 crore, boosting central public sector enterprises.
FMCG
+0.50%
No sector-specific news or drivers identified in available data for +0.50% gain.
Sector Scoreboard
Sector
1D
1W
1Y
3Y
Realty
+4.39%
+2.86%
-18.32%
+90.10%
Auto
+3.38%
-0.21%
+14.78%
+102.44%
Pharma
+2.81%
-0.80%
+1.01%
+75.11%
CPSE
+0.80%
+4.62%
+12.38%
+143.57%
FMCG
+0.50%
-2.01%
-13.31%
+10.09%
Stock Spotlight Of The Day
Bajaj Finance Limited
Market Cap
5,91,571 Cr
Current Price
₹951
Stock P/E
32.4
Dividend Yield
0.46%
ROCE
11.4%
ROE
19.2%
Shareholding Changes (Impact Factors)
FIIs
QoQ
-0.48%
YoY
0.7%
Stable foreign holding
DIIs
QoQ
0.47%
YoY
-0.22%
Stable domestic holding
Promoters
QoQ
0.03%
YoY
0%
Slight confidence boost
Quarterly Summary (Absolute)
Revenue
QoQ
Slight growth
3.35%
YoY
Solid pickup
18.07%
Expenses
QoQ
Mild increase
5.26%
YoY
Costs rising
18.15%
Net Profit
QoQ
Slight uptick
3.84%
YoY
Strong earnings
23.27%
Profit & Loss (Compounded)
Sales Growth
10 Years
29%
5 Years
21%
3 Years
30%
TTM
22%
Profit Growth
10 Years
34%
5 Years
26%
3 Years
33%
TTM
19%
Stock Price CAGR
10 Years
30%
5 Years
10%
3 Years
15%
1 Year
7%
Return on Equity
10 Years
20%
5 Years
20%
3 Years
21%
Last Year
19%
Fundamentals Corner
While the company maintains a remarkably stable ROE of ~20%, fundamental momentum is cooling as TTM profit growth has decelerated to 19% from its 33% three-year average.
The stock’s lackluster 7% annual return reflects this slowdown, suggesting that the current 32.4 P/E is being tested by the market as earnings growth fails to match historical 30%+ levels.
Recent quarterly performance shows a slight YoY profit recovery (23%), but unless this trend accelerates, the gap between the premium valuation and moderating long-term growth remains a key risk for retail investors.
News TidBits
The company reported a strong Q3 performance characterized by robust loan book growth and stable margins, reaffirming the resilience of the diversified lending sector despite macro uncertainty.
The stock surged 4.79% as a top Nifty gainer, reflecting investor confidence in its ability to navigate post-Budget volatility and leverage its market-leading retail reach.
Key risks include potential margin compression if high government borrowing continues to exert upward pressure on domestic yields and borrowing costs for non-banking financial companies.
Current valuations are supported by the company's digital-first strategy and its success in capturing the premiumization theme prevalent in Indian discretionary consumption.
The outlook remains constructive as the NBFC sector benefits from a structural shift toward organized credit and strong pre-sales momentum in associated sectors like real estate.
Stacks on Stacks: Tip Time 🤑
Mohnish Pabrai’s 'Dhandho' framework of 'heads I win, tails I don’t lose much' is particularly relevant during trade deal transitions; focus on export leaders whose downside is capped by immediate tariff cuts despite high market uncertainty.
Metals Market
Commodity
Price
Day
Monthly
YoY
Gold
USD/t.oz
4809.05
3.2%
8.16%
69.28%
Silver
USD/t.oz
83.059
4.86%
8.47%
159.01%
Copper
USD/Lbs
5.9011
1.3%
-1.25%
35.68%
Steel
CNY/T
3083
-0.26%
0.49%
-5.37%
Lithium
CNY/T
160500
-4.46%
35.44%
106.7%
Iron Ore CNY
CNY/T
786
-0.69%
-1.01%
-2.36%
Platinum
USD/t.oz
2152.1
2.28%
-5.94%
115.23%
HRC Steel
USD/T
972
0%
4.18%
31%
Iron Ore
USD/T
102.66
-2.8%
-3.27%
-2.25%
Silicon
CNY/T
8720
-1.3%
-0.63%
-19.52%
Scrap Steel
USD/T
378
0.67%
3.42%
5.15%
Titanium
CNY/KG
45.5
0%
-1.09%
0%
Precious metals have entered a high-volatility phase with silver futures jumping 3.7% following a historic 30% intraday leverage reset, suggesting a search for a definitive price floor before fresh institutional entry.
Gold prices rose 3.2% as investors sought safe-haven assets amid US trade policy shifts and a partial US government shutdown, although a strengthening US Dollar continues to act as a significant headwind for the metal.
Industrial and rare-earth metals saw a surge in sentiment after Critical Metals Corp reported progress on its Greenland pilot plant and the US government committed $12 billion toward a critical-mineral stockpile to reduce China dependence.
The ongoing supply chain decoupling and China's tightening of rare earth exports have made India’s domestic investments in electronics and EV-grade minerals a strategic imperative for long-term manufacturing stability.
A breakthrough agreement reduces reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports from 25% to 18%, providing an immediate margin boost for textile, garment, and shrimp exporters.
India's commitment to 'Buy American' for energy and technology products worth over $500 billion stabilizes supply chains and fosters a strategic bilateral partnership.
The deal has triggered an export sector re-rating, with players like Gokaldas Exports, Welspun Living, and Avanti Feeds emerging as primary beneficiaries of improved order visibility.
Nifty Reclaims 25,000 Level in Historic Post-Budget Recovery
Markets recorded their largest-ever absolute single-day opening jump of 1,200 points, effectively erasing the shock of the Sunday Budget session and higher STT on derivatives.
Technical resilience is evidenced by the reclaim of the 25,000 psychological mark, with strong sectoral leadership from Auto, Oil & Gas, and Metals helping to stabilize the index.
Falling global crude prices and strategic buying in defensive sectors have offset concerns over elevated FY27 government borrowing plans.
Sectoral Shift Toward Premiumization and High-Value Manufacturing
Maruti Suzuki’s 12% sales jump, led by a rise in Utility Vehicles, underscores a structural shift in Indian consumer preference toward high-margin premium SUVs.
Aarti Industries’ tripling of net profit signals a broader recovery in the chemical sector as it emerges from a cycle of high inventory and low capacity utilization.
Strategic pivots in aviation, such as InterGlobe Aviation's introduction of business-class seats, reflect a move to capture high-yield international traffic and counter rising competition.
India Emerges as the Next Global AI and Infrastructure Trade
Strategic Budget incentives for data centers and AI infrastructure position India to benefit from global trends led by Palantir and Oracle's massive AI capacity investments.
Continued high capex on Railways and Defence provides multi-year order book visibility for PSU majors like Bharat Electronics and BEML Limited.
The focus on infrastructure recycling, as seen in IRB Infrastructure's project transfers, highlights a maturing model for debt reduction and capital efficiency in Indian core sectors.
FII / DII Snapshot
Yesterday
FII Net: ₹-1832.46 cr
DII Net: ₹2446.33 cr
January 2026
FII Net: ₹-41435.22 cr
DII Net: ₹69220.74 cr
Daily Flows
Date
FII Net
DII Net
02-Feb-2026
₹-1832.46 cr
₹2446.33 cr
01-Feb-2026
₹-588.34 cr
₹-682.73 cr
Monthly Flows
Month
FII Net
DII Net
January 2026
₹-41435.22 cr
₹69220.74 cr
December 2025
₹-34349.62 cr
₹79619.91 cr
November 2025
₹-17500.31 cr
₹77083.78 cr
October 2025
₹-2346.89 cr
₹52794.02 cr
September 2025
₹-35301.36 cr
₹65343.59 cr
August 2025
₹-46902.92 cr
₹94828.55 cr
Cha-Ching Cheatsheet 💵
The 'Recency Bias' often leads retail investors to over-penalize portfolios for one-time tax changes like the STT hike, yet wealth is structurally generated by the compound earnings of the underlying business, not the friction of the trade.
Global Markets
Country
Index
1D
1Y
3Y
🇰🇷 South Korea
KOSPI
4.96%
112.29%
110.96%
🇯🇵 Japan
Nikkei 225
3.59%
38.04%
98.83%
🇮🇳 India
GIFT NIFTY
2.69%
10.32%
44.33%
🇹🇭 Thailand
SET Composite
1.93%
3.29%
-19.92%
🇬🇧 UK
FTSE
1.14%
20.48%
32.24%
🇮🇩 Indonesia
Jakarta Composite
1.07%
13.20%
16.51%
🇩🇪 Germany
DAX
1.04%
15.72%
59.89%
🇸🇬 Singapore
Straits Times
0.88%
29.85%
46.10%
🇫🇷 France
CAC
0.67%
4.15%
14.16%
🇺🇸 USA
S&P 500
0.54%
16.38%
73.64%
🇨🇳 China
Shanghai Composite
0.38%
24.01%
23.30%
🇭🇰 Hong Kong
Hang Seng
0.15%
32.64%
22.13%
Global markets influence Indian volatility via US tariff pressures on exports; investors watch fiscal policy signals amid heightened bond yields post-Budget.
International developments contribute to Nifty range-bound outlook at 25,000-25,500; global cues add to post-Budget consolidation.
Worldwide economic momentum concerns amplify Indian market caution; higher global yields echo in domestic borrowing target reactions.
Export-oriented sectors face global headwinds from US policies, prompting Budget expectations for support measures.
Overseas market trends foster defensive Indian sentiment ahead of RBI MPC, mirroring broader volatility from international fiscal shifts.
Emerging Opportunities
NMDC emerges as promising buy in Rs 81-82 range targeting Rs 90, with weekly breakout from swing high and positive momentum for medium-term growth.
DLF shows reversal from 200-weekly MA with support at demand zone; buy Rs 627-628 targeting Rs 700, strong for real estate long-term potential.
Blue Star breakout above 200-DEMA at Rs 1838-1839, targeting Rs 2030; positive indicators signal HVAC sector upside opportunity.
Indian Oil Corporation ascending trendline breakout from Rs 164-165, targeting Rs 175; consolidation favors energy medium-term gains.
The Union Budget 2026 has introduced a sharp 150% increase in Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on F&O trades, signaling a clear government intent to curb excessive retail speculation in the derivatives segment.
Proposed changes in the Finance Bill aim to simplify capital gains tax and zero-rate GST for brokers serving Foreign Portfolio Investors, which is expected to improve India’s ease-of-doing-business profile and attract long-term flows.
Strategic incentives for semiconductors and the BioPharma sector in the Budget mark a policy shift toward high-value manufacturing, benefiting specialized players within these technological ecosystems.
New fiscal measures targeting data centers and AI infrastructure are positioning India to leverage its skilled workforce for the next leg of global technology services growth.
Crypto Buzz
Name
Price
Market Cap
24h Change
ATH Change
Bitcoin (BTC)
$78641
$1.57T
3.66%
-37.63%
Ethereum (ETH)
$2342.65
$281.89B
5.08%
-52.64%
Tether (USDT)
$0.999136
$185.19B
0.02%
-24.48%
BNB (BNB)
$773.97
$105.07B
4.09%
-43.51%
XRP (XRP)
$1.61
$98.01B
2.75%
-55.78%
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose 2.33% to $2.72 trillion, indicating a modest rebound following a weekend sell-off that had previously wiped out significant value across exchanges.
Bitcoin has stabilized near $78,641, recovering from its 2026 lows, though sentiment remains cautious as central banks continue to prioritize traditional safe havens over digital assets.
Regulatory focus in the APAC region for 2026 is tightening around digital assets, with India expected to enforce stricter anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing measures for crypto participants.
